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Friday, 8 May 2015

GE2015: Hampstead & Kilburn constituency result

Uploaded by Dude Swheatie of Kwug with the help of Camden New Journal and the BBC

  RESULT: Labour's Tulip Siddiq is the new MP for Hampstead and Kilburn
Tulip Siddiq, Labour, 23,977.
Simon Marcus, Conservative, 22,839.
Maajid Nawaz, Lib Dems, 3,039.
Rebecca Johnson, Green, 2,387.
Magnus Nielsen, UKIP, 1,532.
The Eurovisionary Carroll, Independent, 113.
Robin Ellison, The U(niversal) Party, 77.
Pie chart by Dude Swheatie and Lotus 123 shows percentage shares of result.

Dude Swheatie's analysis

Tulip Siddiq's polling shows an Labour majority. Nationwide Labour did very poorly by contrast in terms of numbers of seats won. That largely demonstrates that local Labour activists who could be seen going to and from Labour campaign HQ on the Kilburn High Road were successful in trumping the combined impact of opinion polls and fallout from the failings of 'austerity-lite' and local Labour councils in LB Brent and LB Camden.

It also perhaps demonstrates that Tulip Siddiq was much more electable than London SE3 resident Glenda 'What Do You Expect Me to Do About It?' Jackson who only achieved a majority of 42 at the 2010 General Election.

KUWG activists were among Tulip Siddiq's supporters. My own favourite was Rebecca Johnson who proved an excellent candidate, performing well at hustings and reportedly being excellent at engaging with the public on the street. My contacts with Green Party activists in Camden and Brent, though based on limited sampling, showed much greater interest and support for Rebecca's campaign on the Brent side than the Kilburn side. Like those who 'held their noses' to vote Labour' the one Camden Green Party member I spoke to about Rebecca's campaign was concerned that Rebecca's campaign were worried about 'letting the Tories in'.

Rebecca and some Green Party inclusion in initial televised 'leaders' debates' served to increase the Green Party's 'market share' of the vote by 3% from the 2010 General Election. (2)

This should help the Green Party in the 2016 London Assembly Elections that have a number of Assembly Members elected by Proportional Representation. The Green Party currently has two Assembly Members in London, Darren Johnson and Dame Jenny Jones, who will be standing down from the London Assembly at the next elections for the Greater London Authority.

Nationally, the Green Party of England & Wales achieved only the return of the one Green Party MP Caroline Lucas albeit with an enhanced majority.(3) Gifted and experienced public performer commendable Caroline Lucas had a great record in Parliament but also a strong focus of national activists' support.

In order to have a chance of getting one parliamentary seat in a 'first past the post system', the Green Party has targeted resources into a few constituencies. A vast proportional pooling of the Green Party of England & Wales' financial resources are required even to come 2nd in a parliamentary constituency, and with 'first past the post' even that does not 'hit the spot' into having an impact on Parliament this time around.


(1) http://www.camdennewjournal.com/liveblog
(2) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000727
(3)  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32633718

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